Unum Group (UNM) will publish its first quarter results: what does it hold for us?

Unum Group UNM is expected to release its first quarter 2022 results on May 5, after market close. The company posted a surprise 8.5% profit in the last quarter.

Factors to note

The Unum US segment is expected to have benefited from higher premium levels in the short-term disability product line, higher natural growth in the in-force block and favorable persistence, growth in range of dental and optical products. The increase was likely offset by declines in the voluntary benefit and individual disability product lines. Zacks’ consensus estimate for the Unum US segment’s first-quarter premium income is set at $1.6 billion, suggesting a 2.3% improvement over the figure reported the previous year.

Colonial Life was likely helped by higher overall persistence, higher current year sales and favorable impact across all product lines. Zacks’ consensus estimate for Colonial Life’s first-quarter premium income was $436 million, indicating a 2.3% increase over the prior year level.

Unum International was likely helped by growth in the in-force block, resulting from the impact of rate increases in the group long-term disability product line and greater overall persistence. Zacks’ consensus estimate for first-quarter premium income from the Unum International segment is $178 million.

A decline in the level of invested assets supporting the closed block individual disability product line and a decline in the return on invested assets may have negatively impacted net investment income. This decrease may have been partially offset by an increase in miscellaneous investment income, related to private equity partnerships. Zacks’ consensus estimate for the same is pegged at $540 million, indicating a 1.6% decline from the year-ago quarter.

Expenses likely decreased due to lower benefits and changes in reserves for future benefits, partially offset by higher interest expense and debt, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and other loads.
Continued share buybacks likely boosted net income.

For closed LTC and disability lines, Unum Group estimates quarterly adjusted operating income in the range of $45 million to $55 million assuming more normal trends for investment income and claims results over the course of the year. quarter to report.

Zacks’ consensus estimate for earnings per share is pegged at 81 cents, indicating a 22.1% decline from the figure reported a year ago.

Quantitative model prediction

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks rank of #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of beating Earnings. This is not the case as you can see below.

ESP Earnings: It has an ESP on earnings of -2.83%. Indeed, the most accurate estimate is pegged at 78 cents, lower than Zacks’ consensus estimate of 81 cents. You can discover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re flagged with our earnings ESP filter.

Unum Group Prize and EPS Surprise

Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Quote Unum Group

Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks #3 Rank. You can see the full list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank shares here.

Actions to Consider

Some stocks in the insurance sector that have the perfect mix of elements to beat earnings estimates in upcoming quarterly releases are:

Horace Mann Society of Educators HMN has a Revenue ESP of +3.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3. Zacks’ consensus estimate for Q1 2022 revenue is set at 94 cents, indicating a decrease of 14.5% from compared to the figure reported a year ago.

HMN earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters of 2021.

Lemonade, Inc. LMND has an earnings ESP of +2.66% and a Zacks rank of 3. The Zacks consensus estimate for Q1 2022 earnings is pegged to a loss of $1.43, indicating a decrease of 76.5% compared to the figure reported a year ago.

LMND delivered a negative surprise during the last quarter.

ProAssurance Corporation PRA has a Revenue ESP of +27.54% and a Zacks Rank of 3. Zacks’ consensus estimate for Q1 2022 revenue is set at 17 cents, indicating a 325% increase over the figure reported a year ago.

PRA’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters of 2021.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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