Sunny and bright conditions to add cheers to Diwali; rains restricted to parts of peninsular India

India is ready to celebrate the festival of lights – Diwali – and the weather is also joyous with sunny and bright conditions over most of the country as the monsoon has receded from 60% of the region.

Most parts of northern, northeast, eastern and central India experienced sunny and dry weather last week.

The rains were limited to parts of peninsular India as it rained regularly in Pune, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kochi, Chennai, Hyderabad over the past week, but the northeast monsoon has yet to advance in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh as certain conditions are yet to be satisfied.

Winters are on the doorstep of the Himalayas as a fresh western disturbance brought snowfall to hill stations in Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh on Thursday and Friday.

First snowfall of the season recorded at Indian meteorological department observatories in Lahaul with Gondola at 3.0cm and Keylong at 1.0cm till 8.30am on 21st October.

Rainfall in mountain stations ending at 8:30 a.m. on October 21:

Banihal 34.4mm
Bhaderwah 33.3mm
Qazi Pistol 31.0mm
Dalhousie 23.0mm
Chamber 17.0mm
Kotkhai 13.1mm
Dharamshala 12.3mm

After the western disturbance, clear skies lead to a significant drop in minimum temperatures to subzero levels on various hilltops on October 22:

Hanlé Top -7.7°c
Stakna -6.3°c
Drasse -5.2°c
Leh -5.0°c
Padum -4.8°c
Whisper -4.0°c
Gulmarg -2.4°c
Kargil -1.7°c
Kedarnath -1.5°c
Keylong -1.5°c
Baltic -1.5°c
Kukumsheri -1.4°c
Pahalgam -0.4°c

Meanwhile, pleasant dry weather persisted across the plains of North India, Central India and East India.
Parts of the Indian peninsula continue to absorb even more rain before the monsoon bids the region a final farewell.

A series of evening thunderstorms in Pune saw it break the 300mm rainfall mark for October recording a total of 303mm so far, the wettest October 2nd of the past 11 years, 2020 was the wettest of the decade with 312mm of rainfall at Shivajinagar Observatory in the city.

Bangalore recorded the wettest year since records were kept by the Indian Meteorological.

The city’s observatory recorded a total of 1801.2mm through October 23, making it the highest annual rainfall ever in the country’s computer hub.

Top 10 wettest years in Bangalore since 1900:
2022 – 1801.2mm
2017 – 1696.0mm
2005 – 1608.5mm
2021 – 1510.5mm
1998 – 1431.8mm
1916 – 1348.0mm
1991 – 1338.5mm
1903 – 1301.3mm
2008 – 1286.0mm
1958 – 1283.3mm

Rainfall performance in the post-monsoon season so far is a significant excess across the country, with India as a whole recording a total of 104.2mm from the normal of 63.2mm during the period from October 1 to 23, the deviation from normal being +65%

(Rainfall from October till now in subdivisions of India)

Seasonal precipitation figures by subdivision

Southern Peninsula: 164.7 mm real against an average of 116.4 mm, +41% deviation from normal.

East and Northeast India: 129.5 mm real against an average of 109.2 mm, +19% deviation from normal.

North West India: 64.3 mm real against an average of 19.6 mm, +228% deviation from normal.

Central India: 93.2 mm real against an average of 50.0 mm, +86% deviation from normal.

Current synoptic features influencing the weather in India on October 23:

• The southwest monsoon withdrew from other parts of the country today, 23
October 2022.

Sunny and bright conditions to add cheers in Diwali rains restricted to parts of peninsular India

• The deep depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward at a speed of 20
km/h over the past 6 hours, and was centered at 08:30 IST of today, October 23 on the
west-central and east-central adjacent Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.6°N and longitude 88.4°E, approximately 640
km northwest of Port Blair, 670 km south of Sagar Island and 820 km south-southwest of Barisal
(Bangladesh). It is very likely to move northwest over the next 12 hours and intensify into a cyclone
storm over the central Bay of Bengal. Thereafter, it would recurve and move north-northeast and
cross the coast of Bangladesh between Tinkona Island and Sandwip near Barisal around early October 25
Morning.

Sunny and bright conditions to add cheers in Diwali rains restricted to parts of peninsular India

(Satellite imagery shows the formation of the cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal)

• The trough now starts from the cyclonic circulation associated with
the deep depression over the central west and central east adjacent from the Bay of Bengal to the Comorin region through
Southern Bay of Bengal and Northern Sri Lanka and extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level.

• The Western Disturbance is a trough in the westerly winds of the middle and upper troposphere with its axis at 5.8 km
above mean sea level roughly along Long. 82.0° E north of Lat. 20.0° N persists.

Weather forecast for all India till October 30:

• As the monsoon recedes from most parts of the country, it is very likely that dry weather will prevail in all major regions over the coming week.
In North India, Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, NCR Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan to observe dry weather conditions with temperatures nighttime temperatures dropping below 15°C at major resorts, nights are expected to cool down in the Himalayas with minimum temperature around sub-zero levels while the plains experience fairly cool mornings with minimum temperature between 10 and 15°C next week.
The air quality index will fluctuate in the poor to very poor range over the week and may not move into the hazardous category anytime soon as weather conditions such as wind patterns and speeds remain favorable .

As in northern India, the weather conditions are likely to be very dry in central India.
Dry winds are blowing from the north, this will cause overnight temperatures to drop in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh next week and the minimum temperature could settle in a pleasant range of 15-20C.

The wet phase of the rains is expected to slow down in southern India over the coming week as Cyclone Sitrang forming in the Bay of Bengal will suck all the moisture from the land out to sea.
Mainly dry weather conditions to be observed in Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu until October 30, this will be the only dry phase just before the northeast monsoon takes over in Tamil Nadu and in parts of Andhra Pradesh.

Impact of Cyclone Sitrang on East and North-East India during the period from October 23 to 27:

Odisha: Light to moderate rain in many places probably over the coastal districts of Odisha on the 23rd and light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rains probably over the same area on the 24th and isolated heavy rains over the northern coastal districts of Odisha ‘Odisha on October 25.

West Bengal: light to moderate rain in few places with isolated heavy rain likely over coastal districts (south and north 24 Parganas and east and adjoining east Medinipur) of West Bengal on 23 October, light to moderate rainfall in most Spots with isolated heavy to very heavy rains are likely over the coastal districts of West Bengal (South and North Parganas, East and Adjacent West Medinipur) on 24th October.
Light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the coastal districts (south and north of Parganas and Nadia) of the west
Bengal on October 25.

Northeastern States:

Light to moderate rainfall in most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall in isolated locations is likely over northern Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, heavy to extremely heavy rain is likely over southern Assam, eastern Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura on 24 October.
Light to moderate rainfall in most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over the same region on the 25th and isolated heavy rain is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, northeastern Assam and Nagaland October 26.

Sunny and bright conditions to add cheers in Diwali rains restricted to parts of peninsular India

(Graphical intensity plot of Cyclone Sitrang base October 23 afternoon)

Wind Warning:

October 23: Squall winds reaching 50 to 60 km/h with gusts to 70 km/h prevail over the central west and adjacent central east and southeastern Bay of Bengal. It would gradually increase, becoming a gale reaching 65-75 km/h with gusts of 85 km/h over the same region from the evening of the 23rd.
Squall wind speeds reaching 35-45 km/h gusting to 55 km/h are very likely along and off the coasts of Odisha and West Bengal and the Andaman Islands and north of the Atlantic Sea. Andaman.

October 24: Wind speeds reaching 80-90 km/h with gusts to 100 km/h are likely over the central west and adjacent areas of the central east and northern Bay of Bengal. It would gradually increase, rising to 90-100 km/h with gusts of 110 km/h over the same region from the evening of the 24th.

October 25: Wind speeds reaching 90-100 km/h with gusts to 110 km/h are likely over the northern Bay of Bengal and along and off the coast of Bangladesh; 70-90 km/h gusting to 100 km/h probably along and off 24 Parganas district and 60-70 km/h gusting to 80 km/h along and off eastern Medinipur district on the West Bengal coast till morning. It would gradually decrease, becoming 45 to 55 km / h with gusts to 65 km / h on the coastal areas of Bangladesh after the evening. Squally wind speeds reaching 45-55 gusting to 65 km/h are likely along and off Balasore district and 40-50 km/h gusting to 60 km/h along and off the other northern coastal districts of Odisha.

Squall winds reaching 50 to 60 km/h gusting to 70 km/h are likely over Tripura and 45 to 55 km/h gusting to 65 km/h over Mizoram, southern Assam and east of Meghalaya and Manipur.

The author, better known as Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His @navdeepdahiya55 impact based predictions are very popular in North India.

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