Mumbai expects heavy rain; Floods wreak havoc in Assam

The Weather Report: Mumbai rains slowed down mid last week and picked up again from Sunday

Monsoon carnage has been going on in northeast India for a week. Extreme rains are seen in most parts of Meghalaya while heavy to very heavy rains are wreaking havoc in Assam, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

Mawsynram received gigantic rainfall of 1,003.6mm over a 24-hour period ending at 8:30 a.m. on June 17, 2022. Cherrapunji still holds the record for highest daily rainfall of 1,563.3mm since June 16 1995. According to IMD records, Mawsynram recorded the highest daily rainfall for June in the last 83 years since 1940.

Cherrapunji recorded an additional 252.6 mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours up to 8:30 a.m. on June 19.

June 12 — 354mm
June 13 — 293 millimeters
June 14 — 62.6mm
June 15 — 811.6mm
June 16 — 673.6mm
June 17 — 972mm
June 18 — 120.5mm
June 19 — 252.6mm

Total precipitation accumulation over the past eight days is 3,539.9 mm. The world’s wettest region is once again in the spotlight as historic rainfall is recorded. The monsoon experienced a lackluster phase earlier in the week, but once again seasonal rains are picking up on the west coast and adjacent ghats.

Central and northern Kerala received good rains on June 17:

Quilandy–91mm
Vakkad–88mm
Ayyankunnu–81mm
Painavu–77mm
Thikkodi–75.2mm
Manarkad–70.2mm
Palakkad–62.5mm
Idukki–61.4mm
Kodungallur–59mm
Thalassery — 49 mm
Thavannur — 47mm
Kalladi–46.4mm
Aluva–44mm
Pookot–44mm
Ponnani–42mm

Mumbai’s rains slowed mid-week and resumed from Sunday. Santacruz recorded 16.2mm while it was 9.5mm ending at 8:30 a.m. on June 19.

Under the influence of strong western disturbances, many parts of northwest India have been experiencing pre-monsoon rains and thunderstorms since June 16. Parts of Kashmir around Gulmarg saw further snowfall on June 18.

Northern Plains Rains ending at 8:30 a.m. June 18:

Agra–39.2mm
Carnal — 39.0mm
Alwar–35.4mm
Ludhiana–30mm
Ganganagar–29.0mm
Patiala–27.6mm
Muzaffarnagar–24.4mm
Gurgaon–17.7mm
Bathinda–16.4mm
Delhi–13.0mm
Kota–11.4mm
Bhiwani–8.1mm
Churu–5.8mm
Rohtak–5.4mm

Rainfall on June 19, ending at 8:30 a.m.:

Aligarh–28.6mm
Varanasi–28.4mm
Cartridge — 26.2mm
Alwar–17.2mm
Sikar–16.0mm
Jaipur — 13.4mm
Churu–9.2mm
Gurgaon–9.0mm
Add–8.9mm
Gurdaspur–7.9mm
Narnaul–7.0mm
Jhansi–6.4mm
Pathankot–5.4mm
Bikaner–2.8mm
Delhi AP — 1.4mm

The rains brought huge drops in daytime temperatures as cloudy and intermittent rains occurred in most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi NCR and Rajasthan.

Maximum temperatures in some lowland stations on June 18, i.e. 7°C to 12°C below normal:

Ambal — 27.8°C
Chandīgarh — 27.9°C
Ludhian — 28.7°C
Ganganagar — 29.6°C
Hisar — 30.8°C
Merut — 31.4°C
Delhi — 32.7°C

As the pre-monsoon rains kicked in, northwest India finally escaped the unprecedented heat wave that started later in March and lasted until mid-June .

According to Indian Meteorological Department, the southwest monsoon has further advanced in other parts of Gujarat region, Madhya Pradesh, remnant parts of Vidarbha, other parts of Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar on June 19, 2022.

The Northern Monsoon Limit (NLM) now passes through Lat. 22°N/ Long. 60°E, lat. 22°N/ Long.
65°E, Porbandar, Baroda, Indore, Umaria, Pendra Road, Bhawanipatna, Kalingapatnam, Lat.20.0°N/87.0°E, Digha, Giridih, Patna, 27.0°N/84°E.

Conditions are favorable for further monsoon advance in some other parts of Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and North West Bay of Bengal, other parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha, remaining parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and other parts of Bihar and some parts
of northeastern Uttar Pradesh over the next 2-3 days.

Monsoon onset progress in India till June 19

According to IMD data, the total seasonal monsoon rains in India from June 1 to June 19 are as follows:

• India as a whole recorded a total of 79.9mm of rainfall against an average of 86.7mm, a deviation from normal of -8%.

• Southern Peninsula: real 76.0 mm against an average of 98.0 mm, -22% deviation from normal.

• East and North-East India: real 275.1 mm against an average of 183.6 mm, +48% deviation from normal.

• Northwest India: real 24.4 mm against an average of 36.4 mm, -33% deviation from normal.

• Central India: 42.0 mm real against an average of 80.2 mm, -48% deviation from normal.

Weather forecast for all India till June 25:

North India:

An active western disturbance along with moisture feeding southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea will continue to affect northern India until 22 June.

Under the influence of the following weather systems, pre-monsoon rains are expected to continue in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh.

Mumbai expects heavy rainfall to wreak havoc in Assam

Weather symbols. Image courtesy of Peepo/Wikimedia Commons

Intermittent rains will keep the temperature in check until then and the maximum temperature is expected to remain below normal by 5° to 13°C.

The influence of western disturbances will weaken by June 22 and again temperatures will rise sharply from June 23 to 25. This time the weather will be more sultry as the humidity is higher. Monsoon progress towards northern India is not expected until June 25th.

Precipitation accumulation expected until June 25:

Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh — 70mm
Himachal Pradesh–80mm
Uttarakhand–50mm
Punjab — 40mm
Rajasthan–40mm
Haryana–30mm
Delhi NCR — 30mm
Uttar Pradesh–20mm

Central India:

The onset of monsoon is declared in most parts of Maharashtra, southern Madhya Pradesh and central Chhattisgarh.

Over the coming week, scattered moderate to heavy rains are expected in interior Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh.

Meanwhile, with the strengthening of the offshore trough and the west monsoon rains, they are expected to pick up in Konkan and Mumbai. Typical heavy monsoon rains will impact the financial capital over the coming week starting Monday. Waterlogging is very likely in low lying areas rains will be uninterrupted at certain times of the day.

Pre-monsoon rains are expected in various parts of western Madhya Pradesh from June 20 to 23, but the onset of the monsoon is not expected until June 25.

Monsoon progress in Gujarat will be slow especially for Saurashtra where no major rains are expected in the coming week.

Precipitation accumulation expected until June 25:

Maharashtra–120mm
Chhattisgarh–70mm
Madhya Pradesh — 50mm
Gujarat–30mm

Eastern India:

Flood-causing rains in northeastern India are expected to ease a bit over the coming week, but the thrust of southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal will continue, hence moderate to heavy rains will continue in most parts of Meghalaya, sub-Himalayas. West Bengal, Sikkim and Assam with isolated very heavy rains.

The rains will gradually increase over parts of Odisha, but other parts of Jharkhand, West Bengal and Bihar may not experience an active monsoon except for a few scattered thunderstorms until June 25.

Precipitation accumulation expected until June 25:

North East India — 210mm
Odisha–70mm
Bihar–60mm
Jharkhand–50mm
West Bengal — 40mm

South India:

Westerly winds are strengthening, as is the offshore trough on the west coast of India. The first proper monsoon wave of the season to impact India’s west coast and Ghat sections will be June 20-25.

Most parts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa coast and ghat sections will experience heavy to very heavy rains over the coming week and active monsoon conditions will prevail in the region. As the offshore trough activates, the rains will start to decrease in the interiors i.e. Tamil Nadu and interiors of Karnataka including Bangalore this week.

While normal monsoon conditions will prevail in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana including Hyderabad, mostly moderate rains are expected throughout the next week.

Precipitation accumulation expected until June 25:

Goa — 160mm
Karnataka — 140mm
Kerala — 110mm
Telangan — 70 mm
Andhra Pradesh–40mm
Tamil Nadu–30mm

The author, better known as Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His @navdeepdahiya55 impact based predictions are very popular in North India.

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